As anti-viral therapies

(AVT) become increasingly successful and accessible, their impact on the utilization of liver transplantation (LT) is BYL719 likely to change. Furthermore, the effect of birth-cohort screening (BCS) on LT utilization is unclear. While increasing prevalence of HCV-cirrhosis may increase demand for LT, we hypothesize this need will be partly offset by the increasing success of AVT. Aim: We report forecasts of future LT utilization that consider the combined effects of identification of new cases through BCS and intervention with more effective AVT. Methods: We used a previously developed multicohort natural history model to simulate 5-Fluoracil clinical trial progression of patients predicted to have advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis starting in the year 2015 and ending in 2025. We adjusted previous estimates of cirrhosis prevalence based on success of BCS (50% vs. 100% undiagnosed cases identified). Medical literature informed our best estimates of moving between disease stages with and without sustained virologic response (SVR). We then modified the model to estimate the impact of varying treatment uptake rates (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Finally, we used

SVR rates in cirrhotic and post-transplant patients consistent with anticipated interferon-free regimens(80% to 90%). Results: Assuming that half of the undiagnosed HCV patients could be identified by BCS, 1 million cirrhotic patients would be eligible for treatment and disease management in 2015. In sensitivity analysis, the success of BCS, AVT efficacy, and treatment uptake rates all significantly impact disease outcome and need for LT. Based on initial analysis, we estimate a 10% decline

in need for LT if 上海皓元 BCS is able to identify 100% of cases of cirrhosis compared to 50% identification. Furthermore, compared to current standard of care, if interferon-free therapy is applied to 50% vs. 100% of treatment-eligible cirrhotics, need for LT would decline by 20% vs. 55%. These factors plus the potential of competing risk due to comorbidities amongst the aging HCV population all predict a decreased need for donors for HCV patients over the next 1 0 years. Conclusions: Given predicted SVR rates of 80%-90% in patients with advanced fibrosis, prior predictions of LT utilization are no longer accurate. Understanding the implications of improved AVT combined with BCS in this population will inform campaigns to improve both screening and treatment uptake in a traditionally under-served population. Disclosures: Gary L.